枪械拥有问题等观点二极的议题可以看出人对新证据的偏见诠释。

确认偏误(或称确认偏差证实偏差肯证偏误验证偏误验证性偏见英语:Confirmation bias)是个人选择性地回忆、搜集有利细节,忽略不利或矛盾的资讯,来支持自己已有的想法或假设的趋势[1][2][3],属其中一类认知偏误归纳推理中的一个系统性错误。当人们选择性收集或回忆信息时,又或带有偏见地解读信息时,他们便展现了确认偏误。

这种偏见尤其显见于带有强烈情绪的问题和传统观念上。例如,人们面对情伤,大多难以割舍,会在反复的情绪中来回摆荡挣扎,过程中不断回顾并对自己给予合理的解释与交代,直到身心得到平衡安顿为止。

回顾与重新认知的过程会建构一个新的认知事实,它受到个人价值观、家人或传统社会的压力、或宗教信仰等批判或趋避的影响,而倾向采取对自己较为有利的说法或选择性的认知,以合理化整个事件,进而化解外部压力并获得身心上的平衡。像例如说主张废除死刑的人将实际上不明确的死刑吓阻效果给当成死刑吓阻力不存在的证据,以及忽略支持死刑有更强吓阻效果的研究;又例如当谈及枪支管制问题时,人们常偏好支持自己原立场,观点,也倾向将模棱两可的事实做有利于自己的解释。

偏见的搜索、理解和回忆,常被用来说明态度极化(即使争论双方都依附于相同的根据,争执仍变得极端)、信念固着(在反证出现后依然坚信原有看法)、非理性首因效应(即强烈的“先入为主”效应)及错觉相关(对二件偶然事件做无根据的连结的倾向)等现象。

例子

星座[4]

对于人觉得星座算命分析很准,心理学家以确认偏误作理解。

“金牛座都很固执和喜欢钱”。金牛座看到这样的描述,大脑就马上搜寻相符的例子,倾向想起自己固执的事件,而不回想不固执和不爱钱的事件。

参见

注脚

参考资料

  1. ^ Plous 1993,第233页
  2. ^ 郑丽玉. 心理学. 五南图书出版股份有限公司. 2006: 283– [2013-01-17]. ISBN 978-957-11-4381-1. 
  3. ^ Plous, Scott, The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making: 233, 1993 
  4. ^ 陈健欣, Peter Chan. 为甚么我们总觉得星座分析很准?. 澍洞静观 | TreeholeHK. [2019-07-17] (中文(香港)‎). 

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